When the U.S. gets a cold, the rest of the world.....

Stephen Jen tries to complete that sentence in an interesting note that reviews the academic evidence on contagion. Historically, U.S.-based shocks have had very different impacts on the rest of the world. For instance, the 1990-1991 recession hardly affected Europe or emerging markets, while the 2000-2001 shock certainly did.

While trade is the most obvious channel for contagion, evidence suggest that confidence and financial markets have a greater, and certainly speedier, impact.

In the end, Jen believes that any U.S. slowdown will only have a limited impact on the rest of the world. I hope he's right.