Thursday, September 20, 2007

Wondering how low house prices will fall?

Some interesting results are coming out. Moody's expects prices to fall, peak to trough, 7.7% nationally (hat tip: Calculated Risk).

According to Moody's, the bulk of the adjustment will be over by late 2008. This does not square with previous housing downturns, which played out over many years (check this post).

Sounds nasty? Moody's seems positively euphoric compared to the prices quoted in the CME's recently introduced housing price futures, based on the Case-Shiller indices (hat tip: Housing Wire). The 10 city average (includes the largest urban areas) will accumulate a drop of 23% over the next four years.

Scary stuff indeed.